Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics: An Expected Utility Framework

Working Paper: NBER ID: w28284

Authors: Jess Benhabib; Xuewen Liu; Pengfei Wang

Abstract: Even if an asset has no fundamental uncertainty with a constant dividend process, a stochastic sentiment-driven equilibrium for the asset price exists besides the well-known fundamental equilibrium. Our paper constructs such sentiment-driven equilibria under general utility functions within an OLG structure. Our paper further shows that the existence of sentiment-driven equilibria is robust in a standard infinite-period model as long as the pricing kernel is affected by the asset price.

Keywords: Sentiment-driven equilibria; Asset pricing; Self-fulfilling risk panics; Overlapping generations model

JEL Codes: E44; G01; G11


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
agents' beliefs about risk (D80)asset prices (G19)
sunspots (E32)demand for risk compensation (D11)
demand for risk compensation (D11)rational self-fulfilling expectation equilibrium (D84)
sunspot (st) (E32)asset price (qt) (G19)
asset price (qt) (G19)endogenous price crashes (E30)
sentiment-driven equilibria (D50)asset pricing (G19)
asset prices (G19)consumption (E21)
agents' risk perceptions (D80)asset prices (G19)

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