Working Paper: NBER ID: w28275
Authors: John McLaren; Su Wang
Abstract: Numerous government policies have attempted to keep workers out of the workplace, on the assumption that this will lower transmission of COVID-19. We test that assumption, measuring the effect of aggregate workplace absence on US COVID deaths at the county level through August. Instrumenting with an index of how many local workers pre-pandemic can work from home, based on differences in county occupational mix, we find no effect of workplace absence until mid-May, then a sharply rising effect. By August, moving 10 percent of a county's workers from the workplace would lower deaths there by three quarters one month later.
Keywords: COVID-19; workplace absence; mortality; instrumental variables
JEL Codes: I12; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Workplace absence (J22) | COVID-19 deaths (I12) |
| Dingel-Neiman index (C43) | Workplace absence (J22) |
| COVID-19 deaths (I12) | Workplace absence (J22) |