Working Paper: NBER ID: w28257
Authors: Daron Acemoglu; David Autor; Jonathon Hazell; Pascual Restrepo
Abstract: We study the impact of AI on labor markets using establishment-level data on vacancies with detailed occupation and skill information comprising the near-universe of online vacancies in the US from 2010 onwards. There is rapid growth in AI related vacancies over 2010-2018 that is greater in AI-exposed establishments. AI-exposed establishments are reducing hiring in non-AI positions. We find no discernible relationship between AI exposure and employment or wage growth at the occupation or industry level, however, implying that AI is currently substituting for humans in a subset of tasks but it is not yet having detectable aggregate labor market consequences.
Keywords: AI; Labor Markets; Job Vacancies; Employment; Skill Demands
JEL Codes: J23; O33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| AI adoption (C45) | increase in AI-related vacancies (J68) |
| AI exposure (C45) | decline in demand for certain skills (J29) |
| AI exposure (C45) | lower non-AI hiring (J68) |
| AI exposure (C45) | lower overall hiring (J79) |
| AI exposure (C45) | no detectable impact on overall employment (F66) |
| AI exposure (C45) | no detectable impact on wage growth (F66) |