Working Paper: NBER ID: w28234
Authors: Michael Bailey; Drew M. Johnston; Martin Koenen; Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Johannes Stroebel
Abstract: We show that social network exposure to COVID-19 cases shapes individuals’ beliefs and behaviors concerning the coronavirus. We use de-identified data from Facebook to document that individuals with friends in areas with worse COVID-19 outbreaks reduce their mobility more than otherwise similar individuals with friends in less affected areas. The effects are quantitatively large and long-lasting: a one standard deviation increase in friend-exposure to COVID-19 cases in March 2020 results in a 1.2 percentage point increase in the probability of staying home on a given day through at least the end of May 2020. As the pandemic progresses—and the characteristics of individuals with the highest friend-exposure vary— changes in friend-exposure continue to drive changes in social distancing behavior, ruling out many unobserved effects as drivers of our results. We also show that individuals with higher friend-exposure to COVID-19 are more likely to publicly post in support of social distancing measures and less likely to be members of groups advocating to "reopen" the economy. These findings suggest that friends can influence individuals’ beliefs about the risks of the disease and thereby induce them to engage in mitigating public health behavior.
Keywords: COVID-19; social networks; social distancing; public health; behavioral economics
JEL Codes: D83; D85; H0; I0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Friend exposure to COVID-19 cases (C92) | Individual beliefs about social distancing (Z13) |
| Friend exposure to COVID-19 cases (C92) | Mobility (J62) |
| Friend exposure to COVID-19 cases (C92) | Social distancing behavior (C92) |
| Friend exposure to COVID-19 cases (C92) | Public posting in support of social distancing measures (D16) |
| Friend exposure to COVID-19 cases (C92) | Joining groups advocating for reopening the economy (D26) |