Working Paper: NBER ID: w28228
Authors: Francis X. Diebold; Glenn D. Rudebusch
Abstract: The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model indicates that overall sea ice coverage is declining at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon emissions. Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. These results indicate almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean sometime during the 2030s—much earlier than the average projection from the global climate models.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: C22; C51; C52; C53; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Decreasing sea ice extent (Q54) | Increased global temperatures (Q54) |
| Loss of arctic sea ice (F64) | Changes in polar ecosystems and new economic opportunities (F69) |
| Increasing arctic temperatures (Q54) | Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (F64) |