Working Paper: NBER ID: w28202
Authors: Aaron Chalfin; Benjamin Hansen; Emily K. Weisburst; Morgan C. Williams Jr.
Abstract: We report the first empirical estimate of the race-specific effects of larger police forces in the United States. Each additional police officer abates approximately 0.1 homicides. In per capita terms, effects are twice as large for Black versus white victims. At the same time, larger police forces make more arrests for low-level “quality-of-life” offenses, with effects that imply a disproportionate burden for Black Americans. Notably, cities with large Black populations do not share equally in the benefits of investments in police manpower. Our results provide novel empirical support for the popular narrative that Black communities are simultaneously over and under-policed.
Keywords: police force size; racial disparities; public safety; homicide rates
JEL Codes: H72; J15; J18; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Police force size (J45) | Homicide rates (J11) |
| Police force size (J45) | Arrest patterns (K42) |
| Police force size (J45) | Arrests for low-level quality of life offenses (K42) |
| Police force size (J45) | Decline in serious offense arrests (K42) |
| Police force size (J45) | Racial disparities in policing outcomes (J15) |
| Federal block grants from the Department of Justice's Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) office (H77) | Police force size (J45) |