Working Paper: NBER ID: w28181
Authors: David S. Jacks; Krishna Pendakur; Hitoshi Shigeoka
Abstract: Federal prohibition was one of the most ambitious policy interventions in US history. However, the removal of restrictions on alcohol after 1933 was not uniform. Using a new balanced panel on annual deaths, we find that city-level repeal is associated with a 11.6% decrease in the rate of death by non-automobile accidents, a category which critically include accidental poisonings. We relate this finding to a large literature which emphasizes – but never precisely quantifies – the mortality effects of adulterated alcohol during federal prohibition. Thus, repeal likely led to a large annual reduction in accidental poisonings. However, combined with previous results showing even larger increases in infant mortality, repeal nonetheless likely had negative contemporaneous effects on public health.
Keywords: urban mortality; federal prohibition; alcohol regulation; public health
JEL Codes: H73; I18; J1; N3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Repeal of federal prohibition (H77) | Decrease in the rate of death by nonautomobile accidents (J17) |
| Repeal of federal prohibition (H77) | Decrease in accidental poisonings (I12) |
| Decrease in the rate of death by nonautomobile accidents (J17) | Decrease in urban deaths from nonautomobile accidents (R41) |
| Local preferences for alcohol (L66) | Repeal of federal prohibition (H77) |