Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic

Working Paper: NBER ID: w28152

Authors: Enrico Berkes; Olivier Deschenes; Ruben Gaetani; Jeffrey Lin; Christopher Severen

Abstract: Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease—on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large US cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge spillovers, NPIs adopted during the pandemic may have better preserved other inventive factors.

Keywords: non-pharmaceutical interventions; patenting rates; 1918 flu pandemic; innovation

JEL Codes: N92; O31; R11


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (O35)patenting rates (O34)
long-NPI cities (R12)patenting rates (O34)
short-NPI cities (R12)patenting rates (O34)
longer NPIs (F50)preservation of inventive factors (O31)
longer NPIs (F50)access to financial resources (O16)
longer NPIs (F50)reduced uncertainty (D80)
longer NPIs (F50)labor inputs (J24)
patents with multiple inventors (O36)patenting rates (O34)
patents owned by external assignees (O36)patenting rates (O34)

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