Working Paper: NBER ID: w28070
Authors: J. Vernon Henderson; Adam Storeygard; David N. Weil
Abstract: We develop a new measure of land quality by estimating weights in a Poisson regression of grid-cell population on geographic characteristics and country fixed effects. Aggregating to countries, we construct average land quality (ALQ) and quality-adjusted population density (QAPD). We show: First, current income per capita is positively correlated with ALQ. Second, while income today is unrelated to conventional population density, it is strongly negatively related to QAPD. Third, this negative relationship was not present in 1820 and emerged because today’s lower income countries have experienced faster subsequent population growth. Fourth, countries with higher average land quality began sustained modern economic growth earlier, and this earlier takeoff largely explains the modern income-ALQ relationship. We posit a framework in which land quality induced denser populations in Malthusian equilibrium and, via agglomeration, earlier takeoffs. Less dense countries experienced larger population multipliers during their later demographic transitions due to imported health technologies.
Keywords: land quality; economic growth; population density; geographic characteristics
JEL Codes: O13; O18; Q56; R12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| less dense countries (F29) | larger population multipliers (J11) |
| higher average land quality (ALQ) (Q15) | income per capita (D31) |
| income per capita (D31) | quality-adjusted population density (QAPD) (R23) |
| land quality (Q24) | economic growth (O49) |
| historical income per capita (N32) | quality-adjusted population density (QAPD) (R23) |
| land quality (Q24) | modern economic growth (O49) |