Working Paper: NBER ID: w28068
Authors: Amalia R. Miller; Carmit Segal; Melissa K. Spencer
Abstract: Around the world, policymakers and news reports warned that the COVID-19 pandemic, and attendant restrictions on individual mobility and commercial activity, could lead to a surge in domestic violence (DV). Some prominent initial studies of the effects of the pandemic showed evidence of greater DV incidence, but findings were inconsistent across locations and DV measures. This paper focuses on a single major city, Los Angeles, to measure the impact of the initial pandemic shutdown on three DV measures based on police data (911 calls, crime incidents, and arrests) as well as measures based on two non-police administrative sources (the county DV hotline and hospital records). After confirming the prior finding of an increase in DV calls to police during the shutdown, we also show that calls to the hotline increased. However, we find that DV crimes recorded by police and hospital visits by female assault (and DV) victims both decreased significantly, suggesting that the increase in calls came from higher reporting rates, possibly for verbal disputes. Arrests per population for DV crimes were unaffected by the shutdown, but a higher share of DV crimes led to arrests. This points against a decrease in the intensity of policing of DV crimes driving the lower crime rate. We conclude that the initial LA shutdown increased the rates at which people contacted authorities about domestic-related concerns, but decreased the overall incidence of physical DV crimes in the population.
Keywords: COVID-19; domestic violence; Los Angeles; police data; hotline calls; hospital records
JEL Codes: I18; J12; J16; K14; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 pandemic shutdown (H12) | calls to police (K42) |
| COVID-19 pandemic shutdown (H12) | calls to DV hotline (J12) |
| COVID-19 pandemic shutdown (H12) | DV crimes recorded by police (J12) |
| COVID-19 pandemic shutdown (H12) | emergency department visits by female assault and DV victims (J12) |
| decrease in emergency department visits by female assault and DV victims (J12) | overall incidence of physical DV crimes (J12) |
| COVID-19 pandemic shutdown (H12) | arrests per population for DV crimes (J12) |
| COVID-19 pandemic shutdown (H12) | share of DV crimes that resulted in arrests (K42) |
| COVID-19 pandemic shutdown (H12) | serious DV events leading to injuries (J28) |