Working Paper: NBER ID: w27998
Authors: Enrico Cantoni; Vincent Pons
Abstract: We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a U.S.-wide voter-level panel, 2008–18, we examine voters who relocate across state and county lines, tracking changes in registration, turnout, and party affiliation to estimate location and individual fixed effects in a value-added model. Location explains 37 percent of the cross-state variation in turnout (to 63 percent for individual characteristics) and an only slightly smaller share of variation in party affiliation. Place effects are larger for young and White voters.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: D72
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| state characteristics (H73) | voter turnout (K16) |
| individual characteristics (Z13) | voter turnout (K16) |
| moving (J62) | voter turnout (K16) |
| demographic factors (J11) | voter turnout (K16) |
| contextual factors (D91) | party affiliation (D72) |