Working Paper: NBER ID: w27993
Authors: Michael Geruso; Dean Spears
Abstract: Close elections are important for many reasons, including that consequent election disputes can weaken democratic legitimacy and risk political violence. We quantify the probability of close outcomes in US presidential races with novel applications of empirical election models from several sources. We show that razor-thin margins are very likely under the Electoral College (EC). And we establish that the EC causes this closeness: It would not occur under any plausibly comparable popular vote system. The tendency of the EC to generate close elections is true today and throughout US presidential voting history.
Keywords: Electoral College; Close Elections; Political Legitimacy; Election Disputes
JEL Codes: H8; J1; J18; K16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Electoral College (EC) (D72) | Close election outcomes (K16) |
| Structure of Electoral College (EC) (D72) | Razor-thin margins (D43) |
| Electoral College (EC) (D72) | Frequency of close elections (K16) |
| Electoral College (EC) (D72) | Probability of disputes (J52) |
| Close election outcomes (K16) | Decided by a small number of votes (D79) |