Working Paper: NBER ID: w27929
Authors: Assaf Razin
Abstract: International trade increased rapidly after 1990, fueled by the growth of a complex network of global value chains. Financial globalization gathered force. Trade globalization, however, reversed course since the Global Financial Crisis. The new trend is expected to endure after the Global Pandemic Crisis. There is no indication so far of significant reversal of financial globalization.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F0; F3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | disruption of global supply chains (F69) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | decline in consumer spending (D12) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | decline in investment (E22) |
| decline in economic activity (F44) | decline in demand (J23) |
| decline in demand (J23) | changes in consumption patterns (D12) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | structural transformation in globalization (F69) |
| increased frequency of pandemics (F44) | changes in global trade dynamics (F69) |
| fiscal policy responses to pandemic (E62) | economic recovery (E65) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | exacerbation of inequality (I24) |
| exacerbation of inequality (I24) | adverse effects on low-income workers (F66) |