Working Paper: NBER ID: w27904
Authors: David S. Jacks; Kevin Hjortshj O'Rourke; Alan M. Taylor
Abstract: We introduce a new dataset on British exports at the bilateral, commodity-level from 1700 to 1899. We then pit two primary determinants of bilateral trade against one another: the trade-diminishing effects of distance versus the trade-enhancing effects of the British Empire. We find that gravity exerted its pull as early as 1700, but the distance effect then attenuated and had almost vanished by 1800. Meanwhile the empire effect peaked sometime in the late 18th century before significantly declining in magnitude. It was only after 1950 that distance would once again exert the same influence that it has today.
Keywords: British exports; Bilateral trade; Gravity model; Trade patterns; Historical trade data
JEL Codes: F1; N7
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Distance (R12) | Trade (F19) |
| Empire Membership (J54) | Trade (F19) |
| Distance (R12) | Exports (F10) |
| Empire Membership (J54) | Exports (F10) |
| Distance Elasticity (H31) | Trade Elasticity (H30) |
| Empire Effect (F54) | Trade (F19) |