Working Paper: NBER ID: w27753
Authors: Jason M. Lindo; Krishna Regmi; Isaac Swensen
Abstract: We document the effect of unemployment insurance generosity on divorce and fertility using an identification strategy that leverages state-level changes in maximum benefits over time and comparisons across workers who have been laid off and those that have not been laid off. The results indicate that higher maximum benefit levels mitigate the effects of layoffs. In particular, they mitigate increases in divorce associated with men’s layoffs; increases in separations associated with women’s layoffs; reductions in fertility associated with men’s layoffs; and increases in fertility associated with women’s layoffs.
Keywords: unemployment insurance; divorce; fertility; family stability
JEL Codes: H53; I38; J12; J13; J16; J65
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| higher maximum UI benefits (J65) | reduce the probability of divorce for laid-off men (J65) |
| $100 increase in maximum UI benefits (J65) | reduce the probability of divorce for laid-off men (J65) |
| layoffs (J63) | positively related to divorce for women (J12) |
| layoffs (J63) | decrease the probability of having a new child for men (J13) |
| layoffs (J63) | increase the probability of having a new child for women (J13) |
| more generous UI benefits (J65) | mitigate effects of layoffs on having a child for men (J65) |
| $100 increase in UI benefits (J65) | increase the probability of having a child for men (J13) |
| more generous UI benefits (J65) | mitigate effects of layoffs on having a child for women (J65) |
| $100 increase in UI benefits (J65) | decrease the probability of having a child for women (J13) |