Working Paper: NBER ID: w27718
Authors: Giovanni Peri; Derek Rury; Justin C. Wiltshire
Abstract: We examine the economic impact of the large migration of Puerto Ricans to Orlando after Hurricane Maria. Using a synthetic control approach, we find that employment in Orlando increased, especially in construction and retail, and find positive aggregate labor market effects for non-Hispanic and less-educated workers. While we find that earnings for these workers decreased slightly in construction, this was balanced by earnings growth in retail and hospitality. These results are consistent with small negative impacts on earnings in sectors exposed to a labor supply shock, offset by positive effects in sectors impacted by an associated positive consumer demand shock.
Keywords: migration; Puerto Rico; Hurricane Maria; labor market; synthetic control
JEL Codes: F22; J15; J21; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Puerto Rican migration to Orlando (R23) | overall employment in Orlando (J21) |
| Puerto Rican migration to Orlando (R23) | construction employment in Orlando (L74) |
| Puerto Rican migration to Orlando (R23) | retail sector employment in Orlando (L81) |
| Puerto Rican migration to Orlando (R23) | earnings per worker in the hospitality sector (J31) |
| Puerto Rican migration to Orlando (R23) | construction earnings for native and less-educated workers (J39) |
| overall employment in Orlando (J21) | aggregate earnings for natives (J39) |