Working Paper: NBER ID: w27696
Authors: Minu Philip; Debraj Ray; S. Subramanian
Abstract: India’s case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, trending from 3% or more, to a current level of around 2.2%. The world average rate is far higher, at around 4%. Several observers have noted that this difference is at least partly due to India’s younger age distribution. In this paper, we use age-specific fatality rates from 14 comparison countries, coupled with India’s distribution of covid-19 cases to “predict" what India’s CFR would be with those age-specific rates. In most cases, those predictions are lower than India’s actual performance, suggesting that India’s CFR is, if anything, too high rather than too low. We supplement the prediction exercises with the application of a decomposition technique, and we additionally account for time lags between case incidence and death, for a more relevant cross-country perspective in the growth phase of the pandemic.
Keywords: COVID-19; Case Fatality Rate; India; Age Distribution; Comparative Analysis
JEL Codes: J10; J11; O10; O57
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| India's age distribution (J11) | India's COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) (I10) |
| Incidence of cases among younger populations (J11) | India's COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) (I10) |
| Distribution of cases by age (J11) | Differences in India's COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) (I14) |
| Age-specific fatality rates (J11) | Differences in India's COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) (I14) |
| Time lags between infection and death (C41) | Interpretation of India's COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) (I10) |