Working Paper: NBER ID: w27673
Authors: Brian Beach; Karen Clay; Martin H. Saavedra
Abstract: This article reviews the global health and economic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic, with a particular focus on topics that have seen a renewed interest because of COVID-19. We begin by providing an overview of key contextual and epidemiological details as well as the data that are available to researchers. We then examine the effects on mortality, fertility, and the economy in the short and medium run. The role of nonpharmaceutical interventions in shaping those outcomes is discussed throughout. We then examine longer-lasting health consequences and their impact on human capital accumulation and socioeconomic status. Throughout the paper we highlight important areas for future work.
Keywords: 1918 influenza pandemic; COVID-19; health consequences; economic consequences; non-pharmaceutical interventions
JEL Codes: I10; J10; J24; N00
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 1918 influenza pandemic (N12) | mortality (I12) |
| population density (J11) | mortality (I12) |
| air pollution (Q53) | mortality (I12) |
| 1918 influenza pandemic (N12) | economic contraction (F44) |
| economic contraction (F44) | GDP (E20) |
| economic contraction (F44) | employment (J68) |
| 1918 influenza pandemic (N12) | long-lasting health consequences for individuals in utero (I12) |
| long-lasting health consequences for individuals in utero (I12) | lower socioeconomic status (I14) |
| long-lasting health consequences for individuals in utero (I12) | impaired health outcomes (I14) |