Working Paper: NBER ID: w27651
Authors: Paola Giuliano; Romain Wacziarg
Abstract: We argue that low levels of social capital are conducive to the electoral success of populist movements. Using a variety of data sources for the 2016 US Presidential election at the county and individual levels, we show that social capital, measured either by the density of memberships in civic, religious and sports organizations or by generalized trust, is significantly negatively correlated with the vote share and favorability rating of Donald Trump around the time of the election.
Keywords: Populism; Social Capital; Trump; Political Behavior
JEL Codes: D72; Z1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| decline in social capital (Z13) | rise of populist sentiments (P27) |
| higher social capital (Z13) | less favorable opinions of Trump (Y30) |
| higher social capital (Z13) | less likely to vote for Trump (K16) |
| low social capital (Z13) | higher vote share for Trump (K16) |