Working Paper: NBER ID: w27632
Authors: Joshua S. Gans
Abstract: This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics. While modelling behaviour by forward-looking rational agents can provide some insight into the time paths of pandemics, the non-stationary nature of Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) models of viral spread makes characterisation of resulting equilibria difficult. Here I posit a shortcut that can be deployed to allow for a tractable equilibrium model of pandemics with intuitive comparative statics and also a clear prediction that effective reproduction numbers (that is, R) will tend towards 1 in equilibrium. This motivates taking R̂=1 as an equilibrium starting point for analyses of pandemics with behavioural agents. The implications of this for the analysis of widespread testing, tracing, isolation and mask-use is discussed.
Keywords: Behavioral Epidemiology; Pandemics; Effective Reproduction Number
JEL Codes: I12; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Behavioral adjustments (D91) | Effective reproduction number (R) tends towards 1 (C59) |
| Perception of infected individuals (I12) | Behavioral adjustments (D91) |
| Effective reproduction number (R) tends towards 1 (C59) | Dynamics of infection spread (C69) |
| Basic reproduction number (R0) increases (C59) | Activity of susceptible individuals decreases (I12) |
| Activity of susceptible individuals decreases (I12) | Overall infection rates impact (I14) |