Working Paper: NBER ID: w27620
Authors: Brian G. Knight; Ana Tribin
Abstract: This paper investigates the link between violent crime and immigration using data from Colombian municipalities during the recent episode of immigration from Venezuela. The key finding is that, following the closing and then re-opening of the border in 2016, which precipitated a massive immigration wave, homicides in Colombia increased in areas close to the border with Venezuela. Using information on the nationality of the victim, we find that this increase was driven by homicides involving Venezuelan victims, with no evidence of a statistically significant increase in homicides in which Colombians were victimized. Thus, in contrast to xenophobic fears that migrants might victimize natives, it was migrants, rather than natives, who faced risks associated with immigration. Using arrests data, there is no corresponding increase in arrests for homicides in these areas. Taken together, these results suggest that the increase in homicides close to the border documented here are driven by crimes against migrants and have occurred without a corresponding increase in arrests, suggesting that some of these crimes have gone unsolved.
Keywords: Immigration; Violent Crime; Colombia; Venezuela
JEL Codes: J15; J18; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| immigration wave (F22) | increased homicide rates in municipalities close to the Colombia-Venezuela border (N96) |
| border closure in August 2015 (F55) | increased homicide rates in municipalities close to the Colombia-Venezuela border (N96) |
| border reopening in August 2016 (Z38) | increased homicide rates in municipalities close to the Colombia-Venezuela border (N96) |
| immigration wave (F22) | increased homicide rates involving Venezuelan victims (N46) |
| immigration wave (F22) | no statistically significant increase in homicides involving native Colombians (J15) |