Working Paper: NBER ID: w27599
Authors: Tamma A. Carleton; Amir Jina; Michael T. Delgado; Michael Greenstone; Trevor Houser; Solomon M. Hsiang; Andrew Hultgren; Robert E. Kopp; Kelly E. McCusker; Ishan B. Nath; James Rising; Ashwin Rode; Hee Kwon Seo; Arvid Viaene; Jiacan Yuan; Alice Tianbo Zhang
Abstract: Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extreme cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by both higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [-$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.
Keywords: climate change; mortality; adaptation; economic impact; health
JEL Codes: Q51; Q54; H23; H41; I14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| climate change (Q54) | mortality (I12) |
| extreme cold temperatures (Q54) | mortality (I12) |
| extreme hot temperatures (Q54) | mortality (I12) |
| income growth (O49) | mortality sensitivity to temperature (I12) |
| adaptation (Y60) | mortality sensitivity to temperature (I12) |
| adaptation costs and benefits (Q52) | estimates of climate change impacts on mortality (J17) |
| RCP 8.5 (C59) | mortality effects (I12) |
| RCP 4.5 (C59) | mortality effects (I12) |
| additional ton of CO2 (Q54) | mortality-related damages (J17) |
| adaptation benefits (Q52) | projected mortality impacts of climate change (J17) |
| adaptation costs (Q52) | projected mortality impacts of climate change (J17) |
| adaptation surplus (D11) | adaptation costs and benefits (Q52) |