Unintended Consequences of Lockdowns: COVID-19 and the Shadow Pandemic

Working Paper: NBER ID: w27562

Authors: Saravana Ravindran; Manisha Shah

Abstract: Violence against women is a problem worldwide, with economic costs ranging from 1-4% of global GDP. Using variation in the intensity of government-mandated lock-downs in India, we show that domestic violence complaints increase 0.47 SD in districts with the strictest lockdown rules. We find similarly large increases in cyber-crime complaints. However, rape and sexual assault complaints decrease 0.4 SD in districts with the strictest lockdowns, consistent with decreased female mobility in public spaces, public transport, and workplaces. Longer-term analysis shows that in-creases in domestic violence complaints persist one year later, while other complaints related to rape, sexual assault, and cybercrimes return to pre-lockdown levels.

Keywords: COVID-19; lockdowns; domestic violence; cybercrime; violence against women

JEL Codes: I15; I18; J12; J16; O15


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
Lockdown measures (F38)Domestic violence complaints (J12)
Lockdown measures (F38)Cybercrime complaints (K24)
Lockdown measures (F38)Rape and sexual assault complaints (K42)
Husbands' belief in justified domestic violence (J12)Domestic violence complaints (J12)
Wives' belief in justified domestic violence (J12)Domestic violence complaints (J12)

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