Working Paper: NBER ID: w27549
Authors: Caitlin S. Brown; Martin Ravallion
Abstract: Not much is obvious about how socioeconomic inequalities impact the spread of infectious diseases once one considers behavioral responses, correlations among multiple covariates and the likely non-linearities and dynamics involved. Social distancing responses to the threat of catching COVID-19 and outcomes for infections and deaths are modelled across US counties, augmenting epidemiological and health covariates with within-county median incomes, poverty and income inequality, and age and racial composition. Systematic socioeconomic effects on social distancing and infections emerge, and most effects do not fade as the virus spreads. Deaths, once infected, are less responsive to socioeconomic covariates. Richer counties tend to see greater gains in social distancing and lower infection rates, controlling for more standard epidemiological factors. Income poverty and inequality tend to increase the infection rate, but these effects are largely accountable to their correlation with racial composition. A more elderly population increases deaths conditional on infections, but has an offsetting effect on the infection rate, consistent with the behavioral responses we find through social distancing.
Keywords: COVID-19; socioeconomic inequalities; public health; social distancing; behavioral responses
JEL Codes: I12; I14; I32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| socioeconomic factors (P23) | social distancing behaviors (Z13) |
| social distancing behaviors (Z13) | spread of COVID-19 (F62) |
| median income (D31) | social distancing behaviors (Z13) |
| poverty rates (I32) | social distancing behaviors (Z13) |
| median income (D31) | infection rates (I14) |
| poverty rates (I32) | infection rates (I14) |
| elderly population (J14) | deaths conditional on infections (I12) |
| elderly population (J14) | infection rates (I14) |
| racial composition (J15) | infection rates (I14) |
| income inequality (D31) | infection rates (I14) |