Working Paper: NBER ID: w27530
Authors: Carl T. Kitchens; Luke P. Rodgers
Abstract: Using variation in crop prices induced by large swings in demand surrounding World War I, we examine the fertility response to crop revenue increases from 1910 to 1930. Our estimates from samples utilizing complete count decennial census microdata and newly collected county-level data from state health reports indicate that agricultural price increases reduced fertility, explaining about 9 percent of the overall decline in fertility over the period. The effect persists years after the collapse of the war boom. Importantly, we show that fertility declines were concentrated in women living on the farm and that fertility declined along both the intensive and extensive margins. Combined, the pattern of estimates is consistent with agricultural women experiencing an increase in the opportunity cost of their time.
Keywords: Fertility; Agricultural Prices; Opportunity Cost
JEL Codes: J12; J13; N12; N5
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Agricultural price increases (Q11) | Increase in opportunity cost of time for women living on farms (J29) |
| Agricultural price increases (Q11) | Reduced fertility (J13) |
| Agricultural price increases (Q11) | Reduction in the probability of birth among farm women (J19) |
| Agricultural price increases (Q11) | Decline in fertility rates among women living on farms (J43) |