Working Paper: NBER ID: w27519
Authors: Edward L. Glaeser; Caitlin Gorback; Stephen J. Redding
Abstract: How effective are restrictions on mobility in limiting COVID-19 spread? Using zip code data across five U.S. cities, we estimate that total cases per capita decrease by 20% for every ten percentage point fall in mobility. Addressing endogeneity concerns, we instrument for travel by residential teleworkable and essential shares and find a 27% decline in cases per capita. Using panel data for NYC with week and zip code fixed effects, we estimate a decline of 17%. We find substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity; east coast cities have stronger effects, with the largest for NYC in the pandemic’s early stages.
Keywords: COVID-19; Mobility; Public Health; Instrumental Variables
JEL Codes: H12; I12; J17; R41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Decline in covid19 cases per capita (O51) | Mobility (J62) |
| Mobility (J62) | covid19 cases per capita (O51) |
| Trips (Y60) | covid19 cases per capita (O51) |