Working Paper: NBER ID: w27483
Authors: Daron Acemoglu; Ali Makhdoumi; Azarakhsh Malekian; Asuman Ozdaglar
Abstract: We study the effects of testing policy on voluntary social distancing and the spread of an infection. Agents decide their social activity level, which determines a social network over which the virus spreads. Testing enables the isolation of infected individuals, slowing down the infection. But greater testing also reduces voluntary social distancing or increases social activity, exacerbating the spread of the virus. We show that the effect of testing on infections is non-monotone. This non-monotonicity also implies that the optimal testing policy may leave some of the testing capacity of society unused.
Keywords: COVID-19; testing policy; social distancing; infection spread
JEL Codes: D62; D85; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| increased testing (C90) | higher rates of social activity (Z13) |
| higher rates of social activity (Z13) | increased infections (I12) |
| increased testing (C90) | denser social network (D85) |
| denser social network (D85) | increased infections (I12) |
| increased testing (C90) | higher infection probabilities among low-value agents (D82) |
| optimal testing policy involves under-utilizing testing capacity (H21) | reduced negative impacts on social distancing (F69) |