Working Paper: NBER ID: w27448
Authors: Truc Thi Mai Bui; Patrick Button; Elyce G. Picciotti
Abstract: We summarize some of the early effects and discuss possible future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and recession on the employment outcomes of older workers in the United States. We start by discussing what we know about how older workers faired in prior recessions in the United States and how COVID-19 and this recession may differ. We then estimate some early effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and recession on employment and unemployment rates by age group and sex using Current Population Survey data. We calculate employment and unemployment rates multiple ways to account for the complicated employment situation and possible errors in survey enumeration. We find that while previous recessions, in some ways, did not affect employment outcomes for older workers as much, this recession disproportionately affected older workers of ages 65 and older. For example, we find that unemployment rates in April 2020 increased to 15.43% for those ages 65 and older, compared to 12.99% for those ages 25-44. We also find that COVID-19 and the recession disproportionately affected women, where women have reached higher unemployment rates than men, which was consistent for all age groups and unemployment rate measures we used.
Keywords: COVID-19; Older Workers; Employment Outcomes; Unemployment Rates
JEL Codes: I14; J14; J16; J26
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | increased unemployment rate for older workers aged 65 and older (J14) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | increased unemployment rate for those aged 25-44 (J68) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | higher unemployment rates for women across all age groups (J21) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | increased likelihood of early retirement for older workers (J26) |
| early retirement for older workers (J26) | reduced social security benefits (H55) |
| early retirement for older workers (J26) | increased poverty rates among retirees (J26) |