Working Paper: NBER ID: w27433
Authors: Enrico Cantoni; Vincent Pons
Abstract: We test whether politicians can use direct contact to reconnect with citizens, increase turnout, and win votes. During the 2014 Italian municipal elections, we randomly assigned 26,000 voters to receive visits from city council candidates, canvassers supporting the candidates' list, or to a control group. While canvassers’ visits increased turnout by 1.8 percentage points, candidates’ had no impact on participation. Candidates increased their own vote share in the precincts they canvassed, but only at the expense of other candidates on the list. This suggests that their failure to mobilize nonvoters resulted from focusing on securing the preferences of active voters.
Keywords: voter turnout; canvassing; political participation; Italy
JEL Codes: C93; D72
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Canvasser visits (K16) | Voter turnout (K16) |
| Candidate visits (D79) | Voter turnout (K16) |
| Canvasser visits (K16) | Candidate vote share (D79) |
| Candidate vote share (D79) | Vote counts of list mates (D79) |