Working Paper: NBER ID: w27419
Authors: Wei Cheng; Patrick Carlin; Joanna Carroll; Sumedha Gupta; Felipe Lozano Rojas; Laura Montenovo; Thuy D. Nguyen; Ian M. Schmutte; Olga Scrivner; Kosali I. Simon; Coady Wing; Bruce Weinberg
Abstract: In the early phases of the COVID-19 epidemic labor markets exhibited considerable churn, which we relate to three primary findings. First, reopening policies generated asymmetrically large increases in reemployment of those out of work, compared to modest decreases in job loss among those employed. Second, most people who were reemployed appear to have returned to their previous employers, but the rate of reemployment decreases with time since job loss. Lastly, the groups that had the highest unemployment rates in April also tended to have the lowest reemployment rates, potentially making churn harmful to people and groups with more and/or longer job losses. Taken together, these estimates suggest that employment relationships are durable in the short run, but raise concerns that employment gains requiring new employment matches may not be as rapid and may be particularly slow for hard-hit groups including Hispanic and Black workers, youngest and oldest workers, and women.
Keywords: COVID-19; Labor Market; Reemployment; State Reopening Policies
JEL Codes: I0; J0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| state reopening policies (J18) | reemployment rates (J68) |
| state reopening policies (J18) | job loss probabilities (J63) |
| duration of unemployment (J64) | reemployment probabilities (J68) |