Working Paper: NBER ID: w27411
Authors: Viral V. Acharya; Soumya Bhadury; Jay Surti
Abstract: This paper introduces a new financial vulnerability index for emerging market economies by exploiting key differences in their business cycles relative to those of advanced economies. Information on the domestic price of risk, cost of dollar hedging and market-based measures of bank vulnerability combine to generate indexes significantly more effective in capturing macro-financial vulnerability and stress compared to those based on information in trade and global factors. Our index significantly augments early warning surveillance capacity, as evidenced by out-of-sample forecasting gains around a majority of turning points in GDP growth, relative to distributed lag models that are augmented with information from macro-financial indexes that are custom-built to optimize such forecasts.
Keywords: Financial Vulnerability; Emerging Markets; Economic Growth; Risk Assessment
JEL Codes: C53; E32; E44
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| financial vulnerability (G32) | economic growth (O49) |
| financial vulnerability (G32) | GDP growth turning points (O49) |
| financial vulnerability index (G32) | economic growth (O49) |
| financial vulnerability (G32) | macrofinancial stress (E44) |
| domestic price of risk (D11) | economic growth (O49) |
| market-based measures of bank vulnerability (E44) | economic growth (O49) |