Working Paper: NBER ID: w27401
Authors: Barry Eichengreen; Orkun Saka; Cevat Giray Aksoy
Abstract: Epidemic exposure in an individual’s “impressionable years” (ages 18 to 25) has a persistent negative effect on confidence in political institutions and leaders. This loss of trust is associated with epidemic-induced economic difficulties, such as lower income and unemployment later in life. It is observed for political institutions and leaders only and does not carry over to other institutions and individuals. A key exception is a strong negative effect on confidence in public health systems. This suggests that the distrust in political institutions and leaders is associated with the (in)effectiveness of a government’s healthcare-related response to epidemics. We show that the loss of political trust is largest for individuals who experienced epidemics under weak governments with low policymaking capacity, and confirm that weak governments in fact took longer to introduce policy interventions in response to COVID-19. We report evidence that the epidemic-induced loss of political trust discourages electoral participation in the long term.
Keywords: epidemics; political trust; government response; impressionable years; public health
JEL Codes: I10; N00; Z28
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| epidemic exposure during ages 18 to 25 (I12) | lower levels of political trust (D72) |
| epidemic exposure during ages 18 to 25 (I12) | lower confidence in national government (H10) |
| epidemic exposure during ages 18 to 25 (I12) | lower trust in honesty of elections (K16) |
| epidemic exposure during ages 18 to 25 (I12) | lower approval of national leader's performance (H69) |
| weak government during epidemic exposure (H12) | exacerbated negative impact on political trust (D72) |
| epidemic exposure during ages 18 to 25 (I12) | no effect on social trust (Z13) |
| epidemic exposure during ages 18 to 25 (I12) | no effect on trust in non-political institutions (O43) |