Working Paper: NBER ID: w27321
Authors: David Popp; Francesco Vona; Giovanni Marin; Ziqiao Chen
Abstract: We evaluate the employment effect of the green part of the largest fiscal stimulus in recent history, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Each $1 million of green ARRA created 15 new jobs that emerged especially in the post-ARRA period (2013-2017). We find little evidence of significant short-run employment gains. Green ARRA creates more jobs in commuting zones with a greater prevalence of pre-existing green skills. Nearly half of the jobs created by green ARRA investments were in construction or waste management. Nearly all new jobs created are manual labor positions. Nonetheless, manual labor wages did not increase.
Keywords: green fiscal policy; employment; American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
JEL Codes: E24; E62; H54; H72; Q58
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| employment (J68) | manual labor wages (J39) |
| green ARRA (Q48) | job creation in construction and waste management (L99) |
| green ARRA creates new opportunities for affected workers (J68) | employment (J68) |
| pre-existing green skills (Q01) | employment gains from green ARRA (J68) |
| green ARRA (Q48) | employment effect (J68) |
| green ARRA spending (H76) | employment (J68) |
| green ARRA spending in areas with higher green skills (R11) | employment (J68) |