Working Paper: NBER ID: w27315
Authors: Benjamin W. Cowan
Abstract: I use Current Population Survey Data from February and April 2020 to examine how individual workers have transitioned between labor-market states and which workers have been hurt most by the COVID-19 pandemic. I find not only large effects on workers becoming unemployed but also a decline in labor-force participation, an increase in absence from one’s job, and a decrease in hours worked. Generally, more vulnerable populations—racial and ethnic minorities, those born outside the U.S., women with children, the least educated, and workers with a disability—have experienced the largest declines in the likelihood of (full-time) work and work hours.
Keywords: COVID-19; labor market; worker transitions; unemployment; vulnerable populations
JEL Codes: J1; J2; J6
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Pandemic (H12) | Unemployment Rate (J64) |
| Pandemic (H12) | Labor-Force Participation (J49) |
| Pandemic (H12) | Full-Time Work Decline for Vulnerable Populations (J29) |
| Racial and Ethnic Minorities (J15) | Full-Time Work (J29) |
| Women with Children (J12) | Full-Time Employment (J29) |
| Pandemic (H12) | Inequalities in Labor Market (J70) |