Working Paper: NBER ID: w27285
Authors: Stephen P. Holland; Erin T. Mansur; Nicholas Z. Muller; Andrew J. Yates
Abstract: We determine the environmental benefit of using electric buses rather than diesel or CNG for urban transit. For diesel and CNG we calculate air pollution damages by combining emission rates with damage valuations from the AP3 integrated assessment model and the social cost of carbon. For electric buses we calculate air pollution damages by combining the damage valuations with estimates of the marginal increase in emissions from electricity usage. The environmental benefit is positive on average across all counties in the contiguous U.S. when comparing electric to either diesel or CNG. The environmental benefit of operating an electric bus fleet (rather than diesel) is about $65 million per year in Los Angeles and above $10 million per year in six other MSAs. Including the environmental benefit, we calculate the net present value (NPV) of bus investment. Relative to diesel, the NPV benefit of an electric bus is positive in about two thirds of urban counties. Relative to CNG, the NPV benefit is negative in all counties.
Keywords: Electric Buses; Environmental Benefits; Urban Transit; Air Pollution; Net Present Value
JEL Codes: D62; H23; Q53; R40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Electric Buses (L94) | Less Air Pollution Damages (Q53) |
| Electric Buses (L94) | Environmental Benefit of $65 million per year in Los Angeles (Q52) |
| Electric Buses (L94) | Positive Net Present Value (NPV) in two-thirds of urban counties compared to Diesel (R42) |
| Electric Buses (L94) | Negative Net Present Value (NPV) compared to CNG (H43) |
| Diesel Buses (L92) | Cleaner than Electric in some counties (L94) |