Working Paper: NBER ID: w27279
Authors: Resul Cesur; Joseph J. Sabia; Erdal Tekin
Abstract: Several high-profile news stories have linked post-September 11 (9/11) combat service to violent crime among veterans. Nevertheless, there is scant causal evidence for this claim. We exploit the administrative procedures by which U.S. Armed Forces senior commanders conditionally randomly assign active duty servicemen to overseas deployments to estimate the causal impact of modern warfare on crime. Using data from two national surveys and a unified framework, we find consistent evidence that post-9/11 combat service substantially increased the probability of crime commission among veterans. Combat increases the likelihood of property and violent crime, arrest, gang membership, trouble with police, and punishment under the Uniform Code of Military Justice. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that post-9/11 combat exposure generated approximately $26.7 billion in additional crime costs. Finally, we document descriptive evidence that Traumatic Brain Injury and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) may be important mechanisms to explain post-9/11 combat-induced increases in crime.
Keywords: Post-9/11; Combat Deployments; Crime; Veterans; PTSD; TBI
JEL Codes: H56; K14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| post-9/11 combat deployments (H56) | crime rates among veterans (H56) |
| combat exposure (Y60) | likelihood of property and violent crime arrests (K42) |
| combat exposure (Y60) | gang membership (K42) |
| combat exposure (Y60) | trouble with military or civilian police (H56) |
| combat exposure (Y60) | criminal behavior (K42) |
| combat exposure (Y60) | traumatic brain injury (TBI) (K13) |
| combat exposure (Y60) | post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (Y30) |
| traumatic brain injury (TBI) (K13) | criminal behavior (K42) |
| post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (Y30) | criminal behavior (K42) |
| length of combat deployments (H56) | crime rates (K42) |
| exposure to enemy firefight (Y50) | crime rates (K42) |
| combat exposure (Y60) | increased crime rates among veterans under 33 (H56) |