Working Paper: NBER ID: w27249
Authors: Alex W. Chernoff; Casey Warman
Abstract: COVID-19 may accelerate the automation of jobs, as employers invest in technology to adapt the production process to safeguard against current and potential future pandemics. We identify occupations that have high automation potential and also exhibit a high degree of risk of viral infection. We then examine regional variation in terms of which U.S. local labor markets are most at risk. Next, we outline the differential impact that COVID-19 may have on automatable jobs for different demographic groups. We find that occupations held by U.S. females with mid to low levels of wages and education are at highest risk. Using comparable data for 25 other countries, we find women in this demographic are also at highest risk internationally.
Keywords: COVID-19; Automation; Labor Markets; Demographic Disparities
JEL Codes: I10; I14; I24; J15; J16; J23; J24; R12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 (I15) | automation (L23) |
| automation potential (C53) | viral transmission risk (F42) |
| female occupation (J21) | automation potential (C53) |
| female occupation (J21) | viral transmission risk (F42) |
| low to mid-income women (J79) | joint risk of automation and COVID-19 transmission (L23) |
| COVID-19 (I15) | employment losses for vulnerable demographic groups (J79) |