Working Paper: NBER ID: w27245
Authors: Jesper Akesson; Sam Ashworth-Hayes; Robert Hahn; Robert D. Metcalfe; Itzhak Rasooly
Abstract: Little is known about how people’s beliefs concerning the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) influence their behavior. To shed light on this, we conduct an online experiment (n = 3,610) with US and UK residents. Participants are randomly allocated to a control group or to one of two treatment groups. The treatment groups are shown upperor lower-bound expert estimates of the infectiousness of the virus. We present three main empirical findings. First, individuals dramatically overestimate the dangerousness and infectiousness of COVID-19 relative to expert opinion. Second, providing people with expert information partially corrects their beliefs about the virus. Third, the more infectious people believe that COVID-19 is, the less willing they are to take protective measures, a finding we dub the “fatalism effect”. We develop a formal model that can explain the fatalism effect and discuss its implications for optimal policy during the pandemic.
Keywords: COVID-19; fatalism; beliefs; behavior; risk perception
JEL Codes: I0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Misinformation (D83) | Overestimation of dangerousness and infectiousness of COVID-19 (E71) |
| Expert information (Z00) | Correction of beliefs about COVID-19 (D83) |
| Increased beliefs about infectiousness of COVID-19 (E71) | Decrease in willingness to engage in protective behaviors (I12) |