Working Paper: NBER ID: w27240
Authors: Jason M. Lindo; Isaac D. Swensen; Glen R. Waddell
Abstract: We document the immediate and long-term effects of violent media. Specifically, we evaluate the effects of The Ultimate Fighter, a hit TV show that features fighters competing in violent mixed martial arts and which brought Ultimate Fighting Championship into the mainstream. We estimate the effect of early exposure to this show using panel data from police agencies across the United States and a strategy that uses network ratings prior to the show's premier as an instrumental variable. We show that early exposure significantly reduced crime: these effects are particularly evident for assault, began in the month the show premiered, and persisted for many years. These estimates do not reflect systematic differences across geographic areas in their trends in crime rates prior to 2005. To complement our main results, we also investigate the effects of "UFC Main Events," which air in bars and on Pay-Per-View. This analysis additionally suggests reductions in violence caused by viewership.
Keywords: violent media; crime; The Ultimate Fighter; UFC; instrumental variable
JEL Codes: H0; K42; L82; L83
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Early exposure to TUF (Z28) | Reduction in violent crime rates (K42) |
| TUF viewership (Z29) | Reduction in assaults (I14) |
| UFC main events (Z21) | Reduction in assaults (I14) |
| TUF viewership (Z29) | Decrease in violent behavior (K42) |