Working Paper: NBER ID: w27238
Authors: Paola Giuliano; Marco Tabellini
Abstract: We test the relationship between historical immigration to the United States and political ideology today. We hypothesize that European immigrants brought with them their preferences for the welfare state, and that this had a long-lasting effect on the political ideology of US born individuals. Our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we document that the historical presence of European immigrants is associated with a more liberal political ideology and with stronger preferences for redistribution among US born individuals today. Next, we show that this correlation is not driven by the characteristics of the counties where immigrants settled or other specific, socioeconomic immigrants’ traits. Finally, we conjecture and provide evidence that immigrants brought with them their preferences for the welfare state from their countries of origin. Consistent with the hypothesis that immigration left its footprint on American ideology via cultural transmission from immigrants to natives, we show that our results are stronger when inter-group contact between natives and immigrants, measured with either intermarriage or residential integration, was higher. Our findings also indicate that immigrants influenced American political ideology during one of the largest episodes of redistribution in US history — the New Deal – and that such effects persisted after the initial shock.
Keywords: immigration; political ideology; redistribution; cultural transmission; welfare state
JEL Codes: D64; D72; H2; J15; N32; Z1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| historical European immigration (N33) | contemporary political ideology (P16) |
| historical European immigration (N33) | preferences for redistribution (D39) |
| counties with higher historical presence of European immigrants (N93) | more liberal political ideology (P16) |
| counties with higher historical presence of European immigrants (N93) | stronger preferences for redistribution (D63) |
| 5 percentage point increase in average immigrant share (J69) | 62% higher likelihood of identifying with the Democratic Party (J79) |
| cultural transmission of welfare state preferences (I38) | contemporary preferences for redistribution (D63) |
| exposure to welfare state reforms in immigrants' countries of origin (J68) | contemporary preferences for redistribution (D63) |
| intergroup contact (intermarriage and residential integration) (F55) | effects of immigration on political ideology (K37) |