Working Paper: NBER ID: w27204
Authors: Andrew I. Friedson; Daniel I. Rees
Abstract: Researchers have focused on the contemporaneous relationship between cigarette taxes and smoking, while the longer-run effects of cigarette taxes have received little attention. Using individual-level panel data from 1970-2017, we estimate the effects of cigarette taxes experienced as a teenager on smoking later in life. We find that a one-dollar increase in the cigarette tax experienced between the ages of 12 and 17 is associated with substantial reductions in smoking participation and intensity among adults in their 20s through mid-60s. Among first-time mothers, it is associated with a reduction in the likelihood of smoking the year of giving birth.
Keywords: cigarette taxes; smoking; public health; long-run effects
JEL Codes: H21; I10; I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Cigarette tax increase at ages 12-17 (H29) | Reduction in smoking participation and intensity among adults aged 20 to mid-60s (J26) |
| Increase in cigarette tax at age 14 (H29) | Reduction in likelihood of smoking in 2017 (I12) |
| Increase in cigarette tax at age 16 (H29) | Reduction in likelihood of smoking in 2017 (I12) |
| Increase in cigarette tax at age 12 (H29) | Reduction in probability of smoking for 5 or more years (C41) |
| Increase in cigarette tax at age 12 (H29) | Reduction in probability of smoking for 10 or more years (C41) |
| Increase in cigarette tax at age 12 (H29) | Reduction in probability of smoking for 15 or more years (I12) |
| Cigarette tax increase (H29) | Decrease in likelihood of first-time mothers smoking during pregnancy (J19) |
| Cigarette tax increase (H29) | Reduction in probability of smoking at time of birth (J19) |
| Cigarette tax increase (H29) | Reduction in probability of smoking in the year prior to birth (J13) |