Working Paper: NBER ID: w27187
Authors: Chad D. Cotti; Bryan Engelhardt; Joshua Foster; Erik T. Nesson; Paul S. Niekamp
Abstract: On April 7, 2020, Wisconsin held its presidential primary election, and news reports showed long lines of voters due to fewer polling locations. We use county-level variation in voting patterns and weekly county-level COVID test data to examine whether in-person voting increased COVID-19 cases. We find a statistically significant association between in-person voting density and the spread of COVID-19 two to three weeks after the election. In our main results, a 10% increase in in-person voters per polling location is associated with an 18.4% increase in the COVID-19 positive test rate two to three weeks later.\n
Keywords: COVID-19; in-person voting; Wisconsin primary; public health; electoral policy
JEL Codes: D72; H75; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| in-person voting density (K16) | heightened social interactions (Z13) |
| in-person voting density (K16) | COVID-19 positive test rate (Y10) |
| 10% increase in in-person voters per polling location (K16) | COVID-19 positive test rate (Y10) |
| in-person voting density (K16) | weekly positive rates (E43) |
| in-person voting density (K16) | new COVID-19 cases (Y10) |