Working Paper: NBER ID: w27156
Authors: Joseph Price; Christian Vom Lehn; Riley Wilson
Abstract: Using recent innovations in linking historical U.S. Census data, we study the economic impacts of immigration on natives, including their geographic migration response. We find that the arrival of foreign immigrants significantly increases both native out-migration and in-migration. Accounting for this selective geographic migration, we find smaller economic impacts of immigration for native workers than previous work, including no positive impact on worker incomes. We present evidence of significant “losers” from increased immigration, namely workers who appear to be displaced by immigrant labor and move out of their local labor market, whereas the workers who remain see significant benefits. We also find that younger and lowerskilled workers are “losers” from increased immigration, whereas older and higher-skilled workers are “winners.”
Keywords: Immigration; Economic Impact; Labor Market; Native Workers; Displacement
JEL Codes: J21; J31; J61; J62; N32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Immigration (F22) | Native Outmigration (F22) |
| Immigration (F22) | Native Inmigration (J61) |
| Immigration (F22) | Labor Force Participation (Natives) (J79) |
| Immigration (F22) | Income Gains (Natives) (J31) |
| Immigration (F22) | Income Loss (Younger and Lower-Skilled Workers) (J39) |
| Native Outmigration (Lower-Skilled Workers) (J61) | Worse Labor Market Outcomes (J79) |
| Immigration (F22) | Economic Impacts (Heterogeneous Effects) (F69) |
| Immigration (F22) | Older and Higher-Skilled Workers Income Gains (J31) |