Working Paper: NBER ID: w27143
Authors: Scott Duke Kominers; Parag A. Pathak; Tayfun Sönmez; M. Utku Ünver
Abstract: COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) therapy is currently a leading treatment for COVID-19. At present, there is a shortage of CCP relative to demand. We develop and analyze a model of centralized CCP allocation that incorporates both donation and distribution. In order to increase CCP supply, we introduce a mechanism that utilizes two incentive schemes, respectively based on principles of “paying it backward” and “paying it forward.” Under the first scheme, CCP donors obtain treatment vouchers that can be transferred to patients of their choosing. Under the latter scheme, patients obtain priority for CCP therapy in exchange for a future pledge to donate CCP if possible. We show that in steady-state, both principles generally increase overall treatment rates for all patients—not just those who are voucher-prioritized or pledged to donate. Our results also hold under certain conditions if a fraction of CCP is reserved for patients who participate in clinical trials. Finally, we examine the implications of pooling blood types on the efficiency and equity of CCP distribution.
Keywords: Convalescent Plasma; COVID-19; Market Design
JEL Codes: C78; D47
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| pay-it-backward mechanism (H22) | increased overall treatment rates for all patients (I11) |
| pay-it-forward mechanism (D16) | increased overall treatment rates for all patients (I11) |
| sufficient fraction of pledges honored (G35) | enhanced treatment rates (C22) |
| adequate replenishment rate of CCP (Q21) | effective treatment for prioritized and non-prioritized patients (I11) |
| increased treatment rate for non-prioritized patients (I11) | result of pay-it-backward and pay-it-forward mechanisms (D16) |
| pooling blood types (C46) | better service rates across different blood types (L87) |