Working Paper: NBER ID: w27008
Authors: John M. Barrios; Yael Hochberg
Abstract: Even when, objectively speaking, death is on the line, partisan bias still colors beliefs about facts. We show that a higher share of Trump voters in a county is associated with lower perceptions of risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. As Trump voter share rises, individuals search less for information on the virus, and engage in less social distancing behavior, as measured by smartphone location patterns. These patterns persist in the face of state-level mandates to close schools and businesses or to “stay home,” and reverse only when conservative politicians are exposed and the White House releases federal social distancing guidelines.
Keywords: COVID-19; risk perception; politics; social distancing; partisanship
JEL Codes: D81; I12; L82; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher share of Trump voters in a county (K16) | Lower perceptions of risk during the COVID-19 pandemic (E71) |
| Higher share of Trump voters in a county (K16) | Less searching for information on the virus (K24) |
| Higher share of Trump voters in a county (K16) | Less social distancing behavior (C92) |
| Doubling of confirmed COVID-19 cases (Y10) | Increase in search share for COVID-19 related terms (F62) |
| Higher share of Trump voters in a county (K16) | Muted effect of COVID-19 cases on search share for COVID-19 related terms (E32) |
| Higher share of Trump voters in a county (K16) | Lower compliance with social distancing measures (C92) |