Working Paper: NBER ID: w26992
Authors: Andrew I. Friedson; Drew McNichols; Joseph J. Sabia; Dhaval Dave
Abstract: On March 19, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued Executive Order N-33-20 2020, which required all residents of the state of California to shelter in place for all but essential activities such as grocery shopping, retrieving prescriptions from a pharmacy, or caring for relatives. This shelter-in-place order (SIPO), the first such statewide order issued in the United States, was designed to reduce COVID-19 cases and mortality. While the White House Task Force on the Coronavirus has credited the State of California for taking early action to prevent a statewide COVID-19 outbreak, no study has examined its impact. This study is the first to estimate the effect of SIPO adoption on health. Using daily state-level coronavirus data and a synthetic control research design, we find that California’s statewide SIPO reduced COVID-19 cases by 125.5 to 219.7 per 100,000 population by April 20, one month following the order. We further find that California’s SIPO led to as many as 1,661 fewer COVID-19 deaths during this period. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that there were about 400 job losses per life saved during this short-run post-treatment period.
Keywords: COVID-19; shelter-in-place; public health; synthetic control
JEL Codes: H75; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| SIPO's impact on COVID-19 cases (F69) | job losses (J63) |
| California's statewide SIPO (H79) | reduction in COVID-19 cases (I14) |
| California's statewide SIPO (H79) | reduction in COVID-19 deaths (I14) |
| California's statewide SIPO (H79) | increase in public health benefits over time (I14) |