Working Paper: NBER ID: w26954
Authors: Daniel Lewis; Karel Mertens; James H. Stock
Abstract: This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the response to the novel Coronavirus in the United States. The WEI shows a strong and sudden decline in economic activity starting in the week ending March 21, 2020. In the most recent week ending March 28, the WEI indicates economic activity has fallen further to -6.19% scaled to 4 quarter growth in GDP.
Keywords: Weekly Economic Index; COVID-19; Economic Activity; Real-Time Monitoring
JEL Codes: C51; E01; E66
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Weekly Economic Index (WEI) (C43) | Employment Changes (J63) |
| Weekly Economic Index (WEI) (C43) | Industrial Production (L69) |
| Weekly Economic Index (WEI) (C43) | GDP Growth (O49) |
| Weekly Economic Index (WEI) (second pseudoweek of the month) (C43) | Employment Changes (J63) |