Working Paper: NBER ID: w26946
Authors: Hunt Allcott; Levi Boxell; Jacob C. Conway; Matthew Gentzkow; Michael Thaler; David Y. Yang
Abstract: We study partisan differences in Americans’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Political leaders and media outlets on the right and left have sent divergent messages about the severity of the crisis, which could impact the extent to which Republicans and Democrats engage in social distancing and other efforts to reduce disease transmission. We develop a simple model of a pandemic response with heterogeneous agents that clarifies the causes and consequences of heterogeneous responses. We use location data from a large sample of smartphones to show that areas with more Republicans engaged in less social distancing, controlling for other factors including public policies, population density, and local COVID cases and deaths. We then present new survey evidence of significant gaps at the individual level between Republicans and Democrats in self-reported social distancing, beliefs about personal COVID risk, and beliefs about the future severity of the pandemic.
Keywords: COVID-19; Social Distancing; Partisanship; Public Health
JEL Codes: D72; I12; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Perceptions of risk and costs of social distancing (E71) | Social distancing behavior (C92) |
| Higher Republican voting shares (D72) | Lower levels of social distancing (I14) |
| Partisan beliefs (D72) | Social distancing behavior (C92) |
| Local COVID-19 cases and deaths (Y10) | Social distancing behavior (C92) |
| Public policies (H59) | Social distancing behavior (C92) |