Working Paper: NBER ID: w26916
Authors: Guglielmo Briscese; Nicola Lacetera; Mario Macis; Mirco Tonin
Abstract: We surveyed representative samples of Italian residents at three critical points in the COVID-19 pandemic, to test whether and how intentions to comply with social-isolation restrictions respond to the duration of their possible extension. Individuals reported being more likely to reduce, and less likely to increase, their self-isolation effort if negatively surprised by a given hypothetical extension (i.e., if the extension is longer than what they expected), whereas positive surprises had no impact. These results are consistent with reference-dependent preferences, with individual expectations serving as a reference point, and loss aversion. Our findings indicate that public authorities should carefully manage expectations about policy measures and account for behavioral reactions to deviations from previous announcements.
Keywords: COVID-19; Social Distancing; Compliance; Expectations; Behavioral Economics
JEL Codes: C42; D91; H12; H41; I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| negative surprises (D80) | decreased willingness to comply (K40) |
| expectations about the duration of lockdown (C41) | intentions to comply (K40) |
| hypothetical extension of lockdown (C59) | reduced compliance intentions (L15) |
| expected lockdown end date matches announcement (E60) | intentions to comply (K40) |
| negative surprises (D80) | intentions to comply (K40) |