Working Paper: NBER ID: w2691
Authors: Frederic S. Mishkin
Abstract: This paper outlines an approach to measuring real interest rates and testing hypotheses on their behavior. It then describes what we know about real interest rates in the aggregate economy and provides estimates of real interest rates for the agricultural sector. The evidence presented in this paper indicates that real interest rates for the agricultural economy have been extremely high in the l98Ds and that their behavior seems to be linked to that found for real rates in the aggregate economy. What has been the source of these high real rates? The answer seems to be that it was a result of a concerted effort by the monetary authorities to disinflate the economy. However, the brunt of the Fed's disinflationary policy has fallen more heavily on the farm sector which has had to face far higher reel rates than the rest of the economy. Although breaking the back of inflation was certainly a worthy goal for the Fed, farmers have had to pay a heavy price. They have had to suffer for the sins of an economy that was excessively inflationary, which then had to be brought back into line with disinflationary policy.
Keywords: real interest rates; monetary policy; agricultural sector; disinflation
JEL Codes: E43; E52
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| monetary authorities' efforts to disinflate the economy (E31) | high real interest rates (E43) |
| shift in monetary policy in October 1979 (E65) | high real interest rates (E43) |
| disinflationary policies implemented by the Federal Reserve (E52) | high real interest rates (E43) |
| high real interest rates (E43) | real interest rates for the agricultural sector (Q14) |
| correlation between nominal interest rates and expected inflation (E43) | real interest rates (E43) |